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Who actually pays — the people with an instalment due this week

Every person carrying a finance instalment due between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-26, sorted into three buckets by how they have paid every recurring charge we have ever attempted. Built 2026-09-19 08:00 UTC from 2,637 instalments in due.csv and 18,373 recurring charge attempts going back to 2023-06-01.

People due this week
2,631
2,637 instalments — $505,338
Never paid anything
816
31.0% of them, $166,585 due
Pay all the time
670
25.5% of them, $128,373 due
Early access vs traditional
7.0%
of early-access cardholders pay all the time, against 31.5% on a traditional bank

The rule, exactly. Each person's bucket comes from their own complete record of recurring charge attempts — every COMPLETED or FAILED charge at a city's Recurring location from 2023-06-01 to 2026-09-18, not just this year. Never paid anything = not one successful charge, ever (which includes people we have never charged at all). Pay all the time = a success rate of 80% or better. Pay intermittently = everything in between. 80% is a chosen line, not a measured one — the two tables under Is the line arbitrary? show how many people sit either side of it and what moving it would do. Only 109 of the 1,815 people who have ever paid sit within five points of the cut, so the split is not balanced on a knife edge.

The three buckets

The whole population first, so the grid below has something to sit against. Past success rate is that bucket's own paid-over-attempted across every recurring charge, which is why the top row reads 0.0% by construction.

Payer typePeopleInstalments dueDue this weekAlready past duePast success rate
Never paid anything 816 31.0% 818 $166,585 $599,408 0.0%
Pay intermittently 1,145 43.5% 1,148 $210,380 $1,022,776 37.8%
Pay all the time 670 25.5% 671 $128,373 $106,620 95.9%

The grid — payer type against who issued the card

This is the table Neil asked for. A BIN identifies the issuer, not the cardholder. Early access is the sponsor-bank cluster behind Cash App, Chime, Current, Varo, Dave, SoFi and MoneyLion — the population that can be paid wages early, not a proven list of people who are. The % in the People column is that bucket's share of its own issuer class, so each block of three reads down to 100%. /decline-trends measured early-access cards declining at 86.6% against 54.0% for traditional banks; this is the same gap seen per person rather than per charge.

Card issued byPayer typePeopleInstalments dueDue this weekAlready past duePast success rate
Early-access neobank Never paid anything 248 49.7% 250 $45,370 $211,814 0.0%
Early-access neobank Pay intermittently 216 43.3% 216 $34,920 $193,203 29.4%
Early-access neobank Pay all the time 35 7.0% 35 $5,460 $3,557 93.5%
Early-access neobank all three buckets 499 19.0% 501 $85,751 $408,573 21.6%
Traditional bank / credit union Never paid anything 452 22.5% 452 $97,904 $356,454 0.0%
Traditional bank / credit union Pay intermittently 927 46.1% 930 $174,924 $827,033 39.8%
Traditional bank / credit union Pay all the time 633 31.5% 634 $122,653 $101,983 96.0%
Traditional bank / credit union all three buckets 2,012 76.5% 2,016 $395,481 $1,285,470 48.0%
No card on file yet Never paid anything 116 96.7% 116 $23,311 $31,140 0.0%
No card on file yet Pay intermittently 2 1.7% 2 $535 $2,540 46.4%
No card on file yet Pay all the time 2 1.7% 2 $260 $1,080 100.0%
No card on file yet all three buckets 120 4.6% 120 $24,106 $34,760 48.6%

What the grid says. On an early-access card, 248 of 499 (49.7%) have never had a single recurring charge go through, and only 35 (7.0%) pay all the time. On a traditional bank card it is 452 (22.5%) never and 633 (31.5%) always. An early-access cardholder is 2.2× as likely to have never paid and 4.5× less likely to be a reliable payer. The early-access cohort is 499 people — big enough to be confident about a gap this wide, and the 35-person "pay all the time" cell is the only one small enough to move much week to week.

What is inside “Never paid anything”

Two very different people share that bucket and the difference decides what you do about them. One has a live agreement we have simply never charged yet. The other has been charged and has never once gone through.

Who they arePeopleDue this weekAlready past dueRecurring attempts made
Charged before, never once succeeded 535 20.3% $110,664 $522,863 2,892
No recurring charge attempt on record at all 281 10.7% $55,921 $76,545 0

And the 281 with no recurring record are not all new. 184 of them (65.5%) have been charged — just at a studio, deposit or office location, which this report deliberately excludes because Neil's rule is that only recurring charges count. Between them they have 276 non-recurring attempts of which 228 succeeded. Only 97 people have no charge of any kind anywhere in the feeds. Read the top bucket as “never paid on the finance plan”, not “never gave us money”.

The three buckets by card type

Prepaid beats debit or credit where a card is both — a prepaid debit card behaves like prepaid. Each row reads across to 100%.

card typePeopleNever paid anythingPay intermittentlyPay all the timeDue this weekPast success rate
Prepaid 252 138 54.8%96 38.1%18 7.1% $42,589 20.0%
DEBIT 1,706 437 25.6%849 49.8%420 24.6% $326,433 41.9%
CREDIT 553 125 22.6%198 35.8%230 41.6% $112,210 56.8%
No card on file yet 120 116 96.7%2 1.7%2 1.7% $24,106 48.6%

The three buckets by city

Where the reliable payers actually are. Each row reads across to 100%.

cityPeopleNever paid anythingPay intermittentlyPay all the timeDue this weekPast success rate
Texas 769 257 33.4%333 43.3%179 23.3% $151,701 40.6%
New York 536 147 27.4%255 47.6%134 25.0% $96,949 40.4%
Florida 482 164 34.0%181 37.6%137 28.4% $102,728 45.5%
Nashville 314 86 27.4%157 50.0%71 22.6% $53,230 41.6%
Boston 286 76 26.6%126 44.1%84 29.4% $54,138 45.7%
Chicago 244 86 35.2%93 38.1%65 26.6% $46,592 49.5%

The three buckets by issuing bank

Ranked by how many of this week's people bank there. The long tail is in the CSV.

issuing bankPeopleNever paid anythingPay intermittentlyPay all the timeDue this weekPast success rate
BANK OF AMERICA 250 61 24.4%128 51.2%61 24.4% $47,530 45.9%
JPMORGAN CHASE BANK N.A. - DEBIT 229 39 17.0%100 43.7%90 39.3% $45,399 54.7%
SUTTON BANK 212 123 58.0%80 37.7%9 4.2% $36,508 18.2%
WELLS FARGO BANK 139 27 19.4%68 48.9%44 31.7% $28,157 50.5%
DISCOVER ISSUER 121 32 26.4%58 47.9%31 25.6% $22,826 46.6%
CAPITAL ONE 113 22 19.5%49 43.4%42 37.2% $23,212 50.0%
NAVY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 92 33 35.9%41 44.6%18 19.6% $20,404 33.9%
THE BANCORP BANK 81 33 40.7%41 50.6%7 8.6% $13,247 21.9%
STRIDE BANK 68 27 39.7%36 52.9%5 7.4% $11,026 26.7%
TD BANK 57 9 15.8%33 57.9%15 26.3% $10,163 47.7%
JPMORGAN CHASE BANK N.A. 55 6 10.9%14 25.5%35 63.6% $11,315 75.9%
PNC BANK 43 9 20.9%18 41.9%16 37.2% $8,180 51.6%
AMERICAN EXPRESS US CONSUMER 42 8 19.0%10 23.8%24 57.1% $10,256 70.3%
BANK OF AMERICA - CONSUMER CREDIT 36 7 19.4%11 30.6%18 50.0% $7,040 61.6%
THE BANCORP BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION 30 13 43.3%13 43.3%4 13.3% $6,268 21.3%
CITIBANK N.A. 27 5 18.5%10 37.0%12 44.4% $5,612 56.2%
GREEN DOT BANK DBA BONNEVILLE BANK 27 19 70.4%8 29.6%0 0.0% $5,158 8.3%
TRUIST BANK 27 6 22.2%13 48.1%8 29.6% $5,868 50.0%
USAA FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK 26 2 7.7%16 61.5%8 30.8% $4,400 35.4%
REGIONS BANK 25 4 16.0%13 52.0%8 32.0% $4,056 52.1%
FIFTH THIRD BANK 24 9 37.5%11 45.8%4 16.7% $4,503 48.1%
U.S. BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION 23 10 43.5%8 34.8%5 21.7% $4,488 46.0%
SOFI BANK 23 7 30.4%13 56.5%3 13.0% $4,213 35.3%
FIRST NATIONAL BANK TEXAS 22 7 31.8%11 50.0%4 18.2% $4,223 29.7%
CITIZENS BANK 22 2 9.1%13 59.1%7 31.8% $3,070 50.2%
SANTANDER BANK 15 4 26.7%8 53.3%3 20.0% $3,048 30.0%
CREDIT ONE BANK 15 7 46.7%7 46.7%1 6.7% $3,121 39.2%
EVOLVE BANK & TRUST 15 6 40.0%6 40.0%3 20.0% $2,609 28.3%
GOLDMAN SACHS BANK USA 13 0 0.0%4 30.8%9 69.2% $2,887 73.3%
RANDOLPH BROOKS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 12 2 16.7%6 50.0%4 33.3% $2,310 67.2%
DISCOVER BANK 12 1 8.3%6 50.0%5 41.7% $1,971 53.2%
FISERV SOLUTIONS 12 2 16.7%7 58.3%3 25.0% $1,469 37.4%
M&T BANK 11 3 27.3%6 54.5%2 18.2% $1,954 24.5%
PATHWARD 11 4 36.4%6 54.5%1 9.1% $1,498 32.6%
U.S. BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION-CREDIT 11 0 0.0%6 54.5%5 45.5% $2,032 51.7%
MUNICIPAL CREDIT UNION 10 1 10.0%9 90.0%0 0.0% $1,607 28.0%
DIGITAL FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 10 7 70.0%2 20.0%1 10.0% $1,571 20.6%
ELEVATIONS CREDIT UNION 9 4 44.4%3 33.3%2 22.2% $1,902 18.8%
BARCLAYS BANK DELAWARE 9 1 11.1%2 22.2%6 66.7% $1,819 60.9%
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES 8 3 37.5%1 12.5%4 50.0% $4,117 50.0%
WEBBANK 8 3 37.5%2 25.0%3 37.5% $1,865 68.8%
SYNCHRONY BANK 8 3 37.5%2 25.0%3 37.5% $1,617 66.7%
VARO BANK 8 4 50.0%3 37.5%1 12.5% $1,174 23.5%
WOODFOREST NATIONAL BANK 7 2 28.6%4 57.1%1 14.3% $1,778 32.8%
HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK 7 1 14.3%3 42.9%3 42.9% $1,342 41.2%
COASTAL COMMUNITY BANK 7 4 57.1%2 28.6%1 14.3% $1,196 25.0%
FIRST HORIZON BANK 7 1 14.3%4 57.1%2 28.6% $1,088 50.9%
LOCAL GOVERNMENT FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 7 3 42.9%3 42.9%1 14.3% $944 14.6%
KEYBANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION 7 1 14.3%6 85.7%0 0.0% $1,157 22.4%
CELTIC BANK 6 4 66.7%2 33.3%0 0.0% $1,433 21.1%
CHASE BANK USA 6 1 16.7%0 0.0%5 83.3% $1,316 100.0%
SUNCOAST CREDIT UNION 6 2 33.3%2 33.3%2 33.3% $1,166 63.5%
AMOCO FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 5 1 20.0%2 40.0%2 40.0% $923 37.9%
EASTERN BANK 5 3 60.0%0 0.0%2 40.0% $1,003 29.4%
VYSTAR CREDIT UNION 5 0 0.0%2 40.0%3 60.0% $842 66.7%
REPUBLIC BANK & TRUST COMPANY 5 2 40.0%1 20.0%2 40.0% $648 27.3%
ROCKLAND TRUST COMPANY 4 0 0.0%4 100.0%0 0.0% $1,374 29.3%
FIRST UNITED BANK AND TRUST COMPANY 4 0 0.0%2 50.0%2 50.0% $1,125 76.5%
MERRICK BANK CORPORATION 4 1 25.0%2 50.0%1 25.0% $820 42.9%
CITIBANK 4 0 0.0%1 25.0%3 75.0% $1,066 94.1%
SPACE COAST CREDIT UNION 4 1 25.0%2 50.0%1 25.0% $966 50.0%
CROSS RIVER BANK 4 2 50.0%1 25.0%1 25.0% $656 59.1%
MVB BANK 4 3 75.0%1 25.0%0 0.0% $688 8.6%
TRUIST BANK - CREDIT 4 1 25.0%0 0.0%3 75.0% $773 73.1%
FIDELITY INFORMATION SERVICES 4 1 25.0%1 25.0%2 50.0% $898 21.7%
USF FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 4 0 0.0%3 75.0%1 25.0% $505 28.1%
TTCU FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 4 2 50.0%1 25.0%1 25.0% $674 33.3%
FORT WORTH COMMUNITY CREDIT UNION 4 1 25.0%1 25.0%2 50.0% $537 58.3%
BMO BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION 4 1 25.0%2 50.0%1 25.0% $652 50.0%
BANCO CANARIAS DE VENEZUELA 4 1 25.0%3 75.0%0 0.0% $512 55.3%
GREEN DOT BANK 4 3 75.0%1 25.0%0 0.0% $445 5.0%
COMERICA BANK 4 1 25.0%2 50.0%1 25.0% $322 50.0%
CREDIT UNION OF TEXAS 3 1 33.3%1 33.3%1 33.3% $863 31.0%
AMERICAN AIRLINES FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 3 1 33.3%1 33.3%1 33.3% $469 54.3%
NFCU 3 1 33.3%2 66.7%0 0.0% $740 33.3%
VIRGINIA NATIONAL BANK 3 2 66.7%0 0.0%1 33.3% $804 100.0%
KNOXVILLE TVA EMPLOYEES CREDIT UNION 3 0 0.0%1 33.3%2 66.7% $627 30.8%
WEBSTER BANK 3 0 0.0%2 66.7%1 33.3% $752 77.8%
UNIVERSITY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 3 1 33.3%2 66.7%0 0.0% $560 25.0%
FROST BANK 3 0 0.0%3 100.0%0 0.0% $887 44.0%
EECU 3 1 33.3%1 33.3%1 33.3% $671 58.8%
PSCU INCORPORATED 3 1 33.3%1 33.3%1 33.3% $448 54.5%
SUNRISE BANKS 3 1 33.3%1 33.3%1 33.3% $580 50.0%
DATCU 3 0 0.0%3 100.0%0 0.0% $740 30.8%
BANK OF MISSOURI 3 1 33.3%1 33.3%1 33.3% $656 57.1%
UNITED BANK 3 1 33.3%1 33.3%1 33.3% $428 44.9%
NEIGHBORHOOD CREDIT UNION 3 0 0.0%2 66.7%1 33.3% $350 70.0%
FLORIDA CREDIT UNION 3 1 33.3%2 66.7%0 0.0% $392 57.1%
LAKE FOREST BANK & TRUST COMPANY 3 1 33.3%2 66.7%0 0.0% $425 32.0%
SECURITY SERVICE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 3 0 0.0%2 66.7%1 33.3% $211 62.9%
HARBORONE BANK 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $1,037 17.6%
COMENITY CAPITAL BANK 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $840 72.7%
CAIXABANK 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $468 42.9%
BROADVIEW FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $570 66.7%
REDSTONE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $425 43.8%
ARMED FORCES BANK 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $462 60.0%
TEXAS DOW EMPLOYEES CREDIT UNION 2 1 50.0%0 0.0%1 50.0% $592 85.7%
J.S.C. FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $346 60.0%
CREDIT HUMAN FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%0 0.0%2 100.0% $592 100.0%
TEACHERS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $426 70.0%
BEACON CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $396 15.4%
FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $592 46.2%
USAA FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK - CREDIT 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $542 23.5%
DELTA COMMUNITY CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $508 55.0%
PARTNERS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 1 50.0%0 0.0%1 50.0% $442 55.6%
CELTIC BANK CORPORATION 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $591 10.5%
HORIZON BANK 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $381 57.1%
GULF COAST EDUCATORS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 1 50.0%0 0.0%1 50.0% $383 75.0%
BANCO POPULAR DE PUERTO RICO 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $524 30.0%
KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC COMPANY 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $552 14.3%
TRANSPORTATION ALLIANCE BANK 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $365 90.0%
CARVER FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $392 17.9%
APPLE BANK 2 1 50.0%0 0.0%1 50.0% $502 77.8%
UNITED HERITAGE CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $479 66.7%
UNION BANK AND TRUST COMPANY 2 2 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $517
MORGAN STANLEY PRIVATE BANK NA 2 2 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $491 0.0%
U.S. BANK 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $330 66.7%
NBKC BANK 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $503 20.0%
CHOICE FINANCIAL GROUP 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $393 34.6%
ARIZONA FINANCIAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $492 66.7%
COMMUNITY SERVICE CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%0 0.0%2 100.0% $524 100.0%
PATELCO CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $338 10.0%
CHARLES SCHWAB BANK 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $383 77.8%
PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $283 47.1%
CARD SERVICES FOR CREDIT UNIONS 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $347 38.1%
CU COOPERATIVE SYSTEMS 2 0 0.0%0 0.0%2 100.0% $436 100.0%
PT. BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $455 86.7%
TEXAS TRUST CREDIT UNION 2 2 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $397 0.0%
SHELL FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $298 81.3%
SOUTHSIDE BANK 2 0 0.0%0 0.0%2 100.0% $442 100.0%
ONEUNITED BANK 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $329 24.2%
VANTAGE WEST CREDIT UNION 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $414 50.0%
OLD SECOND NATIONAL BANK 2 1 50.0%0 0.0%1 50.0% $321 100.0%
FALL RIVER FIVE CENTS SAVINGS BANK 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $425 50.0%
PIERMONT BANK 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $414 39.0%
NBT BANK 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $254 80.0%
WESTFIELD BANK 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $304 26.3%
GREATER TEXAS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $225 51.7%
FIRSTBANK 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $230 42.1%
COMPUTER SERVICES 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $260 60.0%
PINNACLE BANK 2 2 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $233 0.0%
BARKSDALE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 2 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $253 0.0%
BANCO COOPERATIVO SICOOB S.A. - BANCO SICOOB 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $268 50.0%
ADDITION FINANCIAL CREDIT UNION 2 2 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $285
ECOBANK R.D.C. S.A.R.L. 2 2 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $235 0.0%
SALEM FIVE CENTS SAVINGS BANK 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $258 28.6%
ASCEND FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $163 66.7%
BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA (PANAMA) S.A. - BBVA (PANAMA 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $150 76.5%
PING AN BANK CO. 2 0 0.0%2 100.0%0 0.0% $130 36.6%
WESBANCO BANK 2 1 50.0%1 50.0%0 0.0% $100 33.3%
MERRIMACK VALLEY CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $89 53.3%
ALTRA FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 2 0 0.0%1 50.0%1 50.0% $71 46.2%
GROW FINANCIAL FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $1,167 20.0%
MEMBERS COOPERATIVE CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $500 33.3%
POPULAR BANK LTD. INC. 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $413 100.0%
PLAINSCAPITAL BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $400 88.9%
SUFFOLK FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $358 100.0%
US COMMUNITY CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $355 30.0%
OREGON PACIFIC BANKING COMPANY DBA OREGON PACIFIC BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $355 36.4%
COASTAL1 CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $345 100.0%
ORIENTAL BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $320 44.4%
WRIGHT-PATT CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $315 50.0%
PROSPERITY BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $310 0.0%
ATLANTIC FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $298 100.0%
FIRST HERITAGE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $298 40.0%
MAZUMA CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $296 11.1%
FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF OMAHA 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296
GREYLOCK FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296 0.0%
FEDEX EMPLOYEES CREDIT ASSOCIATION FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $296 50.0%
SIMMONS BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $296 8.3%
THE BANK OF PRINCETON 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296 0.0%
ABSA BANK MAURITIUS 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296
PRIBANK SH A 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296 0.0%
BANK OZK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296 0.0%
BANK OF TRAVELERS REST 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $296 16.7%
WATERTOWN SAVINGS BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $296 66.7%
BANCO ACTIVO 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296 0.0%
PEAPACK-GLADSTONE BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $296 77.8%
GREAT LAKES CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $296
STELLAR BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $295 0.0%
INTESA SANPAOLO SPA 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $295 58.3%
TURKCELL ODEME VE ELEKTRONIK PARA HIZMETLERI AS 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $295 0.0%
CREDIT UNION AUSTRALIA LTD. 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $292
THE GOLDEN 1 CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $292 44.4%
CENTENNIAL BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $290 0.0%
UNIVERSITY FIRST FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $288 50.0%
COMMUNITY FIRST CREDIT UNION OF FLORIDA 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $288 100.0%
TEXAS BANK AND TRUST COMPANY 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $288 16.7%
SOCIETE GENERALE 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $288 100.0%
BANK OF PRAIRIE DU SAC 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $283 50.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $278 0.0%
FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF DUBLIN 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $275 50.0%
CAIXA GERAL DE DEPOSITOS 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $265 70.0%
POLISH & SLAVIC FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $263 66.7%
TEXELL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $263 0.0%
FLAGSTAR BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $258 100.0%
METABANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $258 7.1%
RADIANT CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $255 14.3%
FAIRWINDS CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $255 0.0%
HEARTLAND BANK AND TRUST COMPANY 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $250 0.0%
MEMBERS 1ST FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $248 87.5%
OKLAHOMA EMPLOYEES CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $246
SOUTHERN BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $246
PEOPLES BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $246 87.5%
WHITAKER BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $246 100.0%
LONE STAR CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $246 100.0%
MACYS 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $246 100.0%
CENTRAL CREDIT UNION OF ILLINOIS 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $246
BANK OF TENNESSEE 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $246 81.8%
PEOPLES SECURITY BANK AND TRUST COMPANY 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $238 0.0%
ORLANDO CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $235 10.5%
CHAMPION CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $225 33.3%
LEADER BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $223 22.2%
OKLAHOMA CENTRAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $223 100.0%
A+ FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $221 75.0%
ARKANSAS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $221 18.8%
VIRGINIA CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $221 40.0%
NIUM 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $221 66.7%
THE HEALTH EDUCATION FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $221 50.0%
CAPITAL CITY BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $221
NEWTOWN SAVINGS BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $218 50.0%
FIRST PREMIER BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $215 25.0%
THE NATIONAL BANK OF COXSACKIE 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $215 16.7%
ORNL FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $210 66.7%
AUSTIN TELCO FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $208 20.0%
PEOPLES ALLIANCE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $206 76.9%
BANKESB 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $205 100.0%
OLD NATIONAL BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $204 100.0%
AMERIS BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $204 78.6%
THE BANK OF MISSOURI 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $204 0.0%
GUARANTY BANK AND TRUST COMPANY 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $200 33.3%
TRUE SKY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $200 0.0%
SCHOOLSFIRST FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $200 0.0%
BANCO DE OCCIDENTE 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $200 100.0%
CADENCE BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $197 0.0%
PS BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $195 100.0%
CHARTER OAK FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $195 27.3%
GERMAN AMERICAN BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $188 100.0%
GATE CITY BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $187 0.0%
STATE EMPLOYEES' CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $183 20.0%
ASSOCIATED BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $180 100.0%
BETHPAGE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $178 10.0%
FIRST COMMAND BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $173 90.9%
SAFE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $171 100.0%
G P O FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $170 25.0%
KEESLER FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $167 100.0%
SAVERS CO-OPERATIVE BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $165 100.0%
FSNB 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $163 16.7%
YES BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $163 50.0%
MISSION FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $163 0.0%
SIUE CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $163 100.0%
AMEX MEXICO GLOBESTAR CORPORATE 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $163
CITIZENS EQUITY FIRST CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $157 80.0%
FREEDOM CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $154
SABINE STATE BANK & TRUST COMPANY 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $150 80.0%
PUBALI BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $150 66.7%
CREDIT UNION OF AMERICA 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $148 66.7%
AMPLIFY CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $148 28.0%
ACHIEVA CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $146 100.0%
METRO CU FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $146 100.0%
MAC FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $142
FIRST BANK AND TRUST 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $142 100.0%
MEMPHIS CITY EMPLOYEES CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $140 31.3%
FAMILY ADVANTAGE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $133 46.2%
FORUM CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $133 57.1%
UARK FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $133 73.3%
ALLY BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $132 43.5%
EDUCATORS CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $125 33.3%
INWOOD NATIONAL BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $125 100.0%
METRO FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $120 71.4%
METRO CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $115 66.7%
ABOUND FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $113 44.4%
APPALACHIAN COMMUNITY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $110 100.0%
COMMUNITY FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $110 50.0%
CB&S BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $110 0.0%
FIRST SOUTHERN NATIONAL BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $108 100.0%
CITIBANK SINGAPORE 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $108 50.0%
SOLARIS SE 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $106
FORTERA FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $103 100.0%
ESL FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $100 100.0%
FARMERS STATE BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $100 81.8%
THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $100 69.6%
ACADEMY BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $100 38.9%
YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $96 75.0%
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $96
UNITED SOUTHERN BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $95 25.0%
GUARANTY TRUST BANK GHANA 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $92 100.0%
JOVIA FINANCIAL FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $88 0.0%
LIGHTHOUSE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $85 40.9%
ZIONS BANCORPORATION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $85 40.0%
EASTMAN CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $85 12.5%
ACME CONTINENTAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $80 15.4%
ARVEST BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $78 46.7%
FIRST COMMUNITY CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $75 42.9%
TD BANK USA NORDSTROM 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $75 100.0%
Y-12 FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $74 78.9%
FIRST CAROLINA BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $73 50.0%
FIRST SERVICE CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $71 50.0%
THE FEDERAL BANK 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $71
BURKE & HERBERT BANK & TRUST COMPANY 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $71 40.0%
RED RIVER EMPLOYEES FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $69 85.7%
COMMUNITY POWERED FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $67 18.2%
CITIZENS NATIONAL BANK AT BROWNWOOD 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $66 45.5%
AVIDIA BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $58 100.0%
EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $56 16.7%
BOKF 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $56 25.0%
BANK RHODE ISLAND 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $55 66.7%
MASS BAY CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $55 22.7%
IGODIRECT GROUP PTY 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $54
NESC FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $50 100.0%
ZA BANK 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $50 100.0%
BANCO SANTANDER PORTUGAL 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $50
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $50 66.7%
SERVICE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 1 100.0%0 0.0%0 0.0% $50 0.0%
AFFINITY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $50 73.3%
TRUPOINT BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $50 60.0%
PACIFIC WEST BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $44 47.4%
DESERT FINANCIAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $31 50.0%
ICBA BANCARD 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $30 12.8%
GRANITE STATE CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%0 0.0%1 100.0% $30 100.0%
MIDFIRST BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $29 60.0%
FIRST ELECTRONIC BANK 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $20 66.7%
U. S. EAGLE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION 1 0 0.0%1 100.0%0 0.0% $17 25.0%

Is the line arbitrary?

Both tables cover only the 1,815 people who have ever had a recurring charge succeed — the other 816 are in Never paid anything by definition and no threshold moves them. The first table shows where people actually sit; the second shows what a different cut would do. The bands touching 80% are highlighted.

Success rate bandFalls inPeople
60% to under 65% Pay intermittently 66 3.6%
65% to under 70% Pay intermittently 103 5.7%
70% to under 75% Pay intermittently 45 2.5%
75% to under 80% — touching the line Pay intermittently 55 3.0%
80% to under 85% — touching the line Pay all the time 54 3.0%
85% to under 90% Pay all the time 37 2.0%
90% to under 101% Pay all the time 579 31.9%
If the cut were…Pay all the timePay intermittently
60% 939 35.7% 876 33.3%
70% 770 29.3% 1,045 39.7%
75% 725 27.6% 1,090 41.4%
80% — the cut in use 670 25.5% 1,145 43.5%
85% 616 23.4% 1,199 45.6%
90% 579 22.0% 1,236 47.0%

Recurring only. Only each city's Recurring location counts (Texas “Recurring”, Boston “Recurring”, New York “Recurring NYC”, Florida “Recurring”, Chicago “Recurring”, Nashville “Recurring”) — matched on a name prefix, so New York's “Recurring NYC” is included. A studio counter sale, a deposit or an office charge cannot enter a bucket. Both history feeds are append-only and re-pull their trailing edge, so they are deduplicated on the payment id across both files before anything is counted — 21,937 unique payments out of 21,937 matched rows. Reading the pre-2025 feed as well as the current one turns out to change nothing here: it contributes only 261 of those 21,937 charges and moves nobody between buckets, because almost every agreement with a payment due this week was written in 2025 or later. That is worth knowing rather than assuming — it means these buckets do not depend on how deep the history goes. One bucket per person, not per instalment: the 2,637 rows in the source collapse to 2,631 people, and Already past due is a per-customer figure counted once each.

Download all 2,631 people as CSV — one row per person with their bucket, issuer, early-access flag, card type, every recurring attempt with the paid/failed split and success rate, what they have banked, first and last charge dates, arrears, and the amount due this week.