Outreach Impact — 24 June 2026

Generated 24 June 2026 — outreach pipeline customers vs everyone else, across 6 Square markets · GHL sub-account nYnvjp6gNOEPRj4yDuAU

SIGNAL: POSITIVE

On the fairest like-for-like comparison — recent sales that were worked by outreach vs recent sales that slipped past it — worked customers reach their crucial 2nd payment 34.4% of the time vs 30.8% for the un-worked group (+3.6 pp). The lift is strongest in Chicago (+12 pp). Texas (Houston + Dallas) currently runs the other way (-6 pp) and needs a look. Sample sizes are still maturing (only 250 outreach customers have had their 2nd payment fall due), so treat this as a directional early read, not a final verdict. Against the much older pre-outreach baseline outreach looks lower — expected, because outreach customers are far newer and earlier in their payment lifecycle.

1st payment made

53.4%

vs 56.9% recent not-worked · -3.5 pp

1st + 2nd payment made

34.4%

vs 30.8% recent not-worked · +3.6 pp

Collection rate

42.2%

vs 50.4% recent not-worked · -8.3 pp

Chargeback rate

0.8%

vs 1.0% recent not-worked · -0.2 pp

Headline cards compare the Outreach cohort against Recent, not-worked customers — the tenure-matched control (both started after outreach began). "pp" = percentage points. Lower is better for chargebacks.

How to read this. Outreach only started recently and only on new finance sales, so a naïve comparison against all old customers would be unfair. We use three cohorts per market:

Outreach — matched to an outreach pipeline contact (the collectors actually worked them).
Pre-outreach baseline — same market, but their series started before outreach began, so their first two payments never got the treatment. This is the honest "before" benchmark.
Recent, not worked — new sales that started after outreach began but slipped past the pipeline. Smallest group, but the cleanest apples-to-apples concurrent control.

Payment rates are age-gated: a customer only counts toward "1st payment made" once their 1st invoice is actually due, so young outreach customers aren't penalised for invoices that haven't come around yet.

1 · Fairest read — Outreach vs Recent sales that slipped past outreach

Both cohorts started after outreach began, so tenure is matched · the only difference is whether they were worked

Cohort	Customers	1st pay %	Δ	1st+2nd %	Δ	Collection	On track	1-2 miss	3+/never
Outreach (treated)	650	53.4% 250/468	▼ -3.5 pp	34.4% 86/250	▲ +3.6 pp	42.2%	245	194	12
Recent, not worked	1,669	56.9% 484/851	30.8% 85/276	50.4%	482	345	9

Δ = outreach minus recent-not-worked, in percentage points. Green = outreach ahead. Both groups are recent, so tenure is matched. Outreach 2nd-payment sample n=250, control n=276.

2 · Before vs After — Outreach vs the older pre-outreach baseline

Same markets, customers who started before outreach began · NOT tenure-matched — read with care

Cohort	Customers	1st pay %	Δ	1st+2nd %	Δ	Collection	On track	1-2 miss	3+/never
Outreach (treated)	650	53.4% 250/468	▼ -2.4 pp	34.4% 86/250	▼ -8.4 pp	42.2%	245	194	12
Pre-outreach baseline	22,641	55.8% 12569/22509	42.8% 9187/21457	46.6%	9509	3254	9514

Δ = outreach minus baseline. The baseline is far more tenured (avg customer is months further into their plan), so a lower outreach number here mostly reflects recency, not worse performance — which is exactly why Section 1 is the primary read.

3 · Side-by-side — Outreach vs everyone else (all other finance customers)

The literal "those people vs everyone else" — note the baseline skews older

Cohort	Customers	1st pay %	Δ	1st+2nd %	Δ	Collection	On track	1-2 miss	3+/never
Outreach (treated)	650	53.4% 250/468	▼ -2.5 pp	34.4% 86/250	▼ -8.3 pp	42.2%	245	194	12
Everyone else	24,310	55.9% 13053/23360	42.7% 9272/21733	46.6%	9991	3599	9523

4 · Refunds & Chargebacks by cohort

Since each market's outreach start · attributed to the customer's recurring series

Cohort	Customers	Refunded	Refund %	Refund $	Chargebacks	CB %	CB $
Outreach (treated)	650	2	0.3%	$420.83	5	0.8%	$4,575.00
Pre-outreach baseline	22,641	60	0.3%	$8,318.19	115	0.5%	$36,286.50
Recent, not worked	1,669	10	0.6%	$8,249.99	16	1.0%	$9,475.66

Refund = voluntary (business-initiated, /v2/refunds). Chargeback = customer/bank dispute (/v2/disputes). Account totals this window: 1,072 refunds, 285 chargebacks (some land on non-recurring customers and aren't shown per-cohort).

5 · By market — where outreach is (and isn't) working

Outreach vs recent-not-worked, on the 2nd-payment metric, per Square account

Market	Outreach n	1st %	1st+2nd %	Recent n	Recent 1st+2nd %	Δ 2nd pay
Chicago outreach from 2026-03-27	184	51.7%	36.7% 36/98	241	24.6% 14/57	▲ +12.2 pp
Boston outreach from 2026-04-30	29	63.6%	44.4% 4/9	136	16.7% 1/6	low n
New York outreach from 2026-03-27	124	52.9%	27.7% 18/65	282	27.0% 17/63	▲ +0.7 pp
Florida outreach from 2026-04-13	76	60.0%	50.0% 8/16	455	38.2% 34/89	▲ +11.8 pp
Texas (Houston + Dallas) outreach from 2026-04-15	181	52.1%	32.1% 17/53	410	38.0% 19/50	▼ -5.9 pp
Nashville outreach from 2026-05-04	56	51.4%	33.3% 3/9	145	0.0% 0/11	low n

Δ = outreach 2nd-payment % minus recent-not-worked, where both samples are large enough to read. Outreach start dates differ per market. Markets with very few matured 2nd payments show "low n" and shouldn't be over-read.

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